CHARLOTTE — Yeah, we know, when we started doing this a couple of weeks ago, people pointed and laughed.

Now, this is serious business for the Panthers, talking about the playoffs, because the chances are both real and right in front of their face.

Beat the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay on Sunday, and they have the lead for the NFC South division title heading into the final week of the season. The Panthers would still need a win against the Saints in the finale OR a Saints loss to the Eagles next week plus a Bucs loss to Atlanta in the finale to secure the crown.

Beating a good Lions team — and beating them convincingly — was quite the Week 16 statement for the Panthers, as they set franchise records for total yards (570) and rushing yards (320) in that game.

But all it did was give them a chance to make this week matter, and it does. So here's what it looks like around the NFL's messiest division:

TAMPA BAY (7-8)

Remaining games: Carolina, at Atlanta.

Record of remaining opponents: 11-19

What it looks like: The result was what Tampa Bay needed, but the way they got there wasn't necessarily encouraging for the Bucs heading into Sunday's showdown with the Panthers.

They needed a fourth-quarter comeback and overtime to beat the pesky Cardinals, who were playing their third-string quarterback in his first-ever NFL start. But the flip side of that is they got a fourth-quarter comeback and overtime win to beat the Cardinals, who were playing their third-string quarterback in his first-ever NFL start. This is the NFC South. We don't talk about style points down here. So Hickory N.C.'s Ryan Succop hitting a walk-off field goal in overtime to beat a four-win, three-quarterbacked team counts.

The Bucs can win the division outright this week by beating the Panthers, but with a loss, they'd need a win and some help in Week 18.

Never tell me the odds (Tell me the odds): According to the New York Times, the Buccaneers chances to make the playoffs ticked back up slightly to 76 percent after Sunday night's win. It had bounced from 76 percent the week before to 72 last week. Because they're a game up on the Panthers, they have a natural edge here.

CAROLINA (6-9)

Remaining games: at Tampa Bay, at New Orleans.

Record of remaining opponents: 13-17

What it looks like: The Panthers will take their chances now because of the way they bounced back against the Lions. After a difficult defeat to the Steelers (which was still a one-score game and not a stomping like they took at Cincinnati), the Panthers came back to kind of crush Detroit.

Usually, when you think of a Panthers win under interim coach Steve Wilks, you think of something lower-scoring and less exciting. But Sam Darnold hit his share of plays downfield to go with the record-setting run game, giving the Panthers something resembling balance on offense, which they haven't known for a while. The injury to cornerback Jaycee Horn doesn't help, considering they still have to defend that Brady guy and he's pretty good late in games.

Again, it all comes down to this one game, and the Panthers are 4-6 all-time against Brady in the regular season (including the last one, the 21-3 win at Bank of America Stadium in Week 7 that got the whole Steve Wilks Experience rolling).

So, maybe not the best chance, but things like this have happened before — both beating Brady and making the postseason with a losing record.

Never tell me the odds (Tell me the odds): According to the New York Times, the Panthers still have a 22 percent chance to make the playoffs, up from 20 percent the week before (after steadily climbing from 10 to 19 the two weeks prior).

Beat the Bucs, and it goes up to 62 percent. Still not comfortable, but when you start 1-4 and fire a head coach, and then trade your best player, you'll take that heading into a new year.

NEW ORLEANS (6-9)

Remaining games: at Philadelphia, Carolina.

Record of remaining opponents: 19-11

What it looks like: The Saints are still lingering around the fringes of this party, close enough to break stuff but not really out in the middle of the floor dancing.

They stayed alive by beating the Browns on Saturday, and if the Panthers beat the Bucs, they still have a chance to go into Week 18 with a pulse. They have one particular combination of results that would get them in.

They'd have to win out against the Eagles and Panthers, and they need the Panthers to beat the Bucs this week to keep that option afloat. Then they'd need the Bucs to lose in Week 18 against the Falcons. That's it; that's all they need.

Never tell me the odds (Tell me the odds): According to the New York Times, the Saints now have a 3 percent chance of winning the division, down from a 4 percent chance a week ago.

ATLANTA (5-10)

Remaining games: Arizona, Tampa Bay.

Record of remaining opponents: 11-19

What it sounds like: Sad trombone sound.

The Falcons were eliminated from playoff contention Saturday with their loss to the Ravens, unable to get anything going offensively when they needed a spark.

In any other division, they'd have been out of business weeks ago, but this is the NFC South. We're a welcoming people.

Never tell me the odds (Tell me the odds): According to the New York Times, the Falcons' chances went from 4 percent to 0, because sometimes we need our math to be absolute.

TIEBREAKER RULES

If there's a tie for the top of the NFC South (and what looks like the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs) things could get interesting.

Here's a list of the league's tiebreaking procedures for two teams within a division:

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs)

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference

5. Strength of victory

6. Strength of schedule

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed

9. Best net points in common games

10. Best net points in all games

11. Best net touchdowns in all games

12. Coin toss

If there's a tie among three or more clubs, it goes like this

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs)

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference

5. Strength of victory

6. Strength of schedule

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed

9. Best net points in common games

10. Best net points in all games

11. Best net touchdowns in all games

12. Coin toss

(If at some point in the three-team tiebreaker one team is eliminated, the other teams go back to the top of the two-team list.)

What does that all mean? At the moment, the Panthers and Buccaneers have matching 3-1 division records. The Saints are 2-3.

But ultimately, it comes down to the final two weeks. Which, considering what we've seen so far, is more than anyone could have hoped for.

AND A NOTE FOR THE PESSIMISTS

There are people in the world who were upset when the Panthers started winning games this year (there are people in the world who wake up in the morning looking for something to be upset about) because it was hurting their draft status. But here's the weird part: It isn't really changing that much lately.

If the season ended today, the Panthers would pick eighth overall in next year's draft, same as a week ago. (They have the highest pick of the six-win teams since ties for draft order are broken by strength of schedule, lowest-to-highest. Thanks, NFC South).

The Falcons would pick sixth under the current standings, and the Saints wouldn't pick at all since they traded their pick to the Eagles last year.

Since playoff teams pick after all the other non-playoff teams (even if they have worse records), the Bucs are still sitting on the 19th overall pick at the moment.