CHARLOTTE — We're almost there, friends.
After months of buildup, we get to catch our breath this weekend before diving headlong into the NFL draft next week.
Of course, there's some actual football mixed in since the Panthers start the offseason program on Monday, and we'll have all the coverage of that if you need to see pictures and video of Bryce Young and friends while they lift weights and run together.
But obviously, the focus is on the draft and the promise it brings.
Right now, every team and their fans are looking at a list of picks and dreaming of all the possibilities. If you have nine selections like the Panthers do, you're thinking about nine potential contributors who will help the team take the next step. Of course, that ignores the messy reality of the draft, which is fewer than half the picks in any given year pan out.
When the Panthers brought back four key members of the 2021 class in the last six months to sign second contracts, that made it a successful draft. The fact they had 11 picks to begin with doesn't change that.
So enjoy this weekend when everything is pure; everyone's potential will be fulfilled, and your mock draft remains perfect.
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Happy Easter, Darin! During this time of the year there is more clickbait about the draft picks than I feel like a presidential election season. I remember reading a month ago that this draft was deep and very talented at certain positions like TE and D-Line. People were thinking trades were going to very aggressive. But now, in the past week, reports are that this draft only really has two "blue-chip" players, and no one is going to want to move. How much of this is an actual reflection of the views of the NFL, and how much is this all just a fabricated half-truth that gets us to click? Thanks for all that you do! We are lucky to have a writer who is honest and straightforward. — Stephen, Awendaw, SC
The one thing I won't miss when the draft is over is the 58th version of your mock draft when you project trades in every spot in the order.
Yes, a lot of this is unnecessary, content for the sake of creating content rather than illuminating or educating. There's more draft content than ever, and most of it is crap. But I guess it's better than talking about tariffs, though there appear to be similar levels of understanding in much of economic and football journalism.
One of my usual requests is that people become more discerning readers and that they keep receipts. There's a temptation to believe a source if it makes you feel some sort of way, but if that source turns out to be wrong all the time, it's less helpful.
The marketplace of ideas is also full of phonies who pretend to possess insight they do not. And when the demand is what it is, people will inevitably create a product to fill it, whether worthwhile or not. Read carefully, my friends.
The good news is we're almost there, to the point when we have actual people to talk about instead of abstract concepts. And if the Panthers draft Tet McMillan, we can learn how he'll fit into an NFL offense rather than looking at a Twitter video from @MockExpert69, who has deep thoughts on his ability to separate. And if it's Jalon Walker, we can learn about him and how he'd fit as an outside linebacker in a 3-4 rather than the experts at DraftAnimal.com who have 30 minutes on his ability to "bend." And if it's Mason Graham or some other top defensive lineman, we'll learn how he'll fit next to Derrick Brown by watching instead of reading Joe Blowhardsky's Substack breakdown of his hand placement.
If that makes me sound elitist, it's only because I am. Gatekeeping can be good for you if it slams the door on some suckers.
Most importantly, when whoever lands here lands here, we'll get to know the person under the helmet, which is always the best part of this process.
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Hey Old Guy from an Older Guy. Been following the Panthers since Day 1 of the franchise. Draft philosophy seems hard to understand: Draft best available vs. need; Do you stay away from players who are injured or coming off serious injuries? If you have a lot of needs, can you afford to draft the best available or injured players? Last year, with a lot of needs, the Panthers drafted players in the second and third rounds who had successful college careers but were injured or coming off serious injuries. That gamble didn't seem to pay off. What's your view on the Panthers' philosophy of drafting, and how does it compare to the most successful NFL franchises? — Norm, Greenville, SC
I'm not sure picking Jonathon Brooks and his torn ACL is representative of a philosophy any more than I believe any one point of any data set makes a trend. They drafted Brooks without knowing he'd tear that ACL again (the crystal ball remains in Ben McAdoo's other pants) because they saw the talent when he was well.
Medical checks are an important part of pre-draft preparation, and generally speaking, more injuries make you susceptible to more injuries. But some things you can't predict.
Dan Morgan, the former Miami linebacker, was never hurt in college, and there were no red flags in his file when the Panthers drafted him in the first round of the 2001 draft. There was no way to realize he'd break his ankle when Brett Favre stiff-armed him and the grass flew out from under his feet. Or that he'd play 59 of a possible 112 games, as injuries stacked up on him. Bad luck is real.
In general, of course, you want to draft healthy guys and minimize the risk of an already risky process. But some of this you can't predict.
Also, your point about deeper and better teams being able to take chances is valid, and there are some (both employed and unemployed) GMs who have a habit of rolling the dice when it comes to guys with medical issues. Trey Smith wasn't even on some team's draft boards because of blood clots diagnosed when he was in college, and the Chiefs took him in the sixth round. Since then, he's turned into a Pro Bowler and one of the best guards in the league. The Eagles got offensive lineman Landon Dickerson in the second round because he had a long list of injuries, including two torn ACLs, and he's part of the reason they are the best running team in the league.
You may have noticed those two played in the Super Bowl, so yes, being in a good environment enhances the chances of it working out. But the Titans drafted Jeffery Simmons despite the fact he tore his ACL two months before the draft, and he's gone to three Pro Bowls since then. So there are examples of it working both ways.
I'd wait to see Morgan draft for a second year before I declared anything a philosophy. If there's a trend to detect, it's likelier that he's willing to move both up and down the board like they did last year, when they traded back to get a future second-rounder, and then up to take Brooks in the middle of the second round.
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Darin - since we are in draft mode for the next week, can you share your thoughts on any prior Panthers picks who: 1. Surprised you the most for where they were picked in the draft (performance on the field - in a good way) and 2. You felt were a disappointment for where they were picked in the draft (performance only, not off the field stuff)? Thanks — Benjamin, Milton, GA
After paying attention to drafts for a long time, you eventually learn to stop having expectations of anyone chosen past the fourth round. Truly, anything you get from that point in the draft should be considered a bonus. There are things teams can do to increase their chances, like creating a stable foundation so young players aren't expected to be finished products as rookies or hiring coaches who can actually develop them, or giving those coaches enough runway to do it before they're fired.
So for every Jason Peter or Dwayne Jarrett or Eric Shelton, there's a Josh Norman or a Captain Munnerlyn or a Kris Mangum, who creates a long and productive career from a place no one expected one to begin. It took Norman years of development when he wasn't even the best Josh on the roster (he and cornerback Josh Thomas would often flip being gameday inactives).
There's no better example than Hall of Honor wideout Steve Smith, the third-round return man from Utah. He was picked 74th overall, one spot after the Jaguars took Tennessee linebacker Eric Westmoreland, who had 2.0 sacks in 28 games over three years before he was cut and played his fourth and final season in Cleveland. When he got here, none of us had really seen him at all, so it was impossible to know what to expect.
I remember listening to people who should have known better in 2001, saying Smith was too little to ever become a productive wide receiver. Maybe when he goes into the Hall of Fame someday, they'll change their mind. Otherwise, the best value might have been former second-round center Ryan Kalil. They got 12 years and five Pro Bowls out of the 59th pick. Circle the bases, Marty Hurney.
But I also thought Evan Mathis, another third-rounder, was going to be very good. He was, just not here, because he couldn't get any traction with the coaching staff he landed with as a rookie. Once he left, he turned into a very good starter who played for 12 years, and went to a couple of Pro Bowls (and his Wikipedia page doesn't even include his time here).
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Since OL/DL are paramount to winning football, do you think it wise that in every single draft, Both an OL and DL are worthy of a draft selection? I'm of the opinion that the UDFA market is hardest to fill per quality O and D linemen, while UDFA at other positions on both sides of the ball are more available. Your thoughts? — Craig, Lincoln, NE
Yes, yes, a million times yes. And I'd be surprised if Morgan gets to draft 10 times here that he wouldn't follow that kind of logic over the course of his time. They didn't draft an offensive lineman last year, but only because they had just spent $150 million in free agency on a couple of guards to stabilize a lineup that otherwise consisted of a first-rounder and two seconds.
They did draft defensive tackle Jaden Crumedy last year, and I'd be surprised if next week's haul doesn't include a defensive lineman (probably early), despite the acquisitions of Tershawn Wharton and Bobby Brown III and the return of Derrick Brown.
Dan Morgan very much wants to fix his defense from front to back, so creating depth so that third-day picks don't have automatic roster spots and have to compete for them is something he's very interested in.
As far as undrafted rookies, there are positions that are easier to find than others. It's exceedingly rare to find pass-rushers there. Quarterbacks, too, although two of the last four undrafted Hall of Famers were Kurt Warner and Warren Moon, guys who developed in other leagues before getting to the NFL.
There are exceptions at every position, but it's generally harder to find cornerbacks and receivers after the draft since teams carry so many of them on offseason rosters that there's an emphasis there. When you're stacking eight corners or 10 receivers on a 90-man roster, there are more numbers, but that doesn't always translate to more prospects.
It's more common to find inside linebackers (for instance, Sam Mills), safeties, and running backs than it is to find really good interior linemen on either side of the ball, as John Randles and Larry Littles are extreme exceptions.
But as an advocate of #oldmanfootball, I absolutely endorse this strategy.
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Hello Mr. Old Guy, I have been a lonely Panthers fan my whole life out here in California and always went to see them play the Chargers (my mom's favorite team) whenever they traveled west. My first ever NFL game I went to was in 2008 when Donte Rosario caught the game-winning touchdown against the then San Diego Chargers; I still remember the echo of my 13-year-old pitchy scream when the entire stadium went quiet. So satisfying. I am not entirely sure how I became a Panthers fan, but I always assumed it was because I had shared the same name of the great Jake Delhomme and the fact that my favorite color was blue. My question is simple: since you are an old guy and predate the Panthers, did you have a favorite team you rooted for as a kid? Thanks, and I cannot wait for the next Mailbag! — Jake, Santa Barbara, Calif.
When I was a kid, you had to work for your football content. Basically, it was on Sundays after church, when you'd get up and walk to the wood-paneled piece of furniture if you wanted to flip channels between two 30-minute pregame shows (after the Billy Packer-hosted Putt-Putt tournament from Fayetteville, N.C. or Albany, Ga. on Channel 3), one national game, and if you were lucky you could stay up late enough on a school night to catch the weekend highlights during halftime of Monday Night Football. We also used to have these things called newspapers. I miss them.
From a young age, I was always drawn more to the running backs than the quarterbacks. Earl Campbell allowed the Oilers to compete with Dan Pastorini at quarterback. The Bills were more about Joe Cribbs than Joe Ferguson. Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier were the original Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. The exception was Dan Fouts, who was like a lineman who happened to throw bombs all day. (I was an AFC guy, when all the other kids at school were arguing about Washington and Dallas.)
But the Raiders had a little bit of everything and were the team that captured the imagination of a kid growing up in the Foothills of North Carolina, a country and an entire world away from anything I had ever experienced.
They were gritty, tough, mean, and anti-establishment in a way that very much appealed to someone who, as it turns out, had authority issues from Day 1. Running backs Mark van Eeghen and Kenny King were good, and Cliff Branch was a big play waiting to happen. But that 1980 team might have been the first time I realized you could win at football by beating the other team into submission. From Art Shell and Gene Upshaw on the left side of the offensive line, to John Matuszak and Ted Hendricks and Matt Millen and Lester Hayes, they were just more physical than their opponents at every level.
And there was also the mystique of everything Silver and Black. I remember reading stories about Hendricks showing up for practice on a horse or coming to the field on Halloween with a pumpkin on his head instead of a helmet. Kenny Stabler was always a moment away from something cool like throwing a 70-yard left-handed touchdown, while holding a can of Schlitz and a heater in his right. I distinctly recall thinking that Lyle Alzado was from another planet and eventually and sadly learning why that was. And being of Tecmo Bowl age in college, realizing that the original cheat code Bo Jackson was like that in real life, too. Even their punter, Ray Guy, was bad ass. The Raiders had style. That made them an easy sell for a kid who grew up without a team in his Mayberry hometown. It took effort to follow them, but it felt worth it because you could adopt their attitude.
The world has shrunk since then, and it's easier to be a Panthers fan in California than it was when I was a kid following football in the other direction. But sometimes there's no explaining it.
A game like the Dante Rosario game in San Diego was memorable for a lot of reasons, including Dick Stockton calling him Rosario Dawson. It was easily the kind of game that can hook a kid forever, and those teams had a habit of dramatic finishes (Delhomme had a little Jim Plunkett in him, too, so I get it.)
We pick the teams we root for for a lot of reasons, each of them our own. And those reasons are sometimes as simple as geography. But those memories from childhood last because they create feelings and emotional connections that hit you in ways that last beyond the final score.
And knowing Panthers fans feel that way about their team makes me want to work hard for them, knowing how much this means to so many people in the place where I'm from. So the least I can do is make Jake this week's Friend Of The Mailbag and send him a T-shirt. It's even blue, so it works for him on a couple of levels. Thanks, Jake.
Hey Darin, lifelong Panthers fan and new resident of the Queen City here! In these trying times, I think what we all need is a video compilation of Cam and TD jawing and taking jabs at one another. Any way you can make it happen? Thanks, love the Mailbag! — Hunter, Charlotte
A three-second search of our archives turned this up, which is just a hint of the way they used to go back and forth.
The cool thing about that era was the way Davis and Newton, or Josh Norman and Newton, pushed each other. Their practices were sometimes as entertaining as the games.
There are millions of stories, and (looks at a calendar, does some sports writer math) it might be time soon to dust some of them off and tell them.
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Loving the daily Twitter countdown of all-time rando former Panthers. Why didn't you start that sooner? — Will, Rock Hill, S.C.
Because 99 days of draft countdowns is about 85 (Dan Arnold!) too many, and also because I didn't think of it until there were two weeks left.
(Seriously, as I mentioned to our friends Mac and Bone on WFNZ the other day, we might not be doing ourselves any favors by starting the draft talk at Thanksgiving or Christmas. Maybe we should let it breathe until Groundhog Day next year.)
But this morning's entry for No. 6 was tough. I enjoyed getting to know journeyman kicker Joe Nedney, who told a funny story when he arrived. But it meant leaving out perhaps the ultimate all-time rando Panther.
Brian St. Pierre was changing diapers when the Panthers called in November of 2010, thinking he was out of football since he hadn't been on a roster after the Cardinals cut him the year before.
But there was a powerful and unseen force intervening in his future and all of ours who were there to witness it — spite.
John Fox did a lot of great things here, but that 2010 season was a hot mess for a lot of reasons. And Fox, knowing he was on his way to the door at the end of the year, was coaching a roster he wasn't particularly interested in coaching. As it turns out, lame ducks have little patience for rebuilding projects they won't be around to see, and the 2010 team was stripped to the studs in preparation for the looming lockout.
So when faced with the prospect of playing a bunch of rookies he didn't want to begin with (he was unmoved by Armanti Edwards and Tony Pike and didn't think anyone else was either), Fox decided to bring St. Pierre and his five career pass attempts (two complete) in off the street when Jimmy Clausen got a concussion.
The 31-year-old St. Pierre thought he'd roll into Charlotte, hold a clipboard for a couple of weeks, and cash a few checks. Instead, he got here and went into the starting lineup in about five minutes. I remember noticing the unorthodox depth chart as they warmed up in practice the Wednesday before the Ravens game. So I did what a good reporter would do, calling his agent and asking: "Did you realize your boy was starting this week?"
"He's doing what?!?"
And what a game it was. That 88-yard touchdown pass to David Gettis was a thing of beauty (it probably went about 35 yards in the air). It was also the last pass he ever threw in anger because he tore a muscle while doing it and never played again. He literally left it all out there on the field.
So, as much as we loved Joe Nedney, we should also raise a glass to a true Panthers legend — Brian St. Pierre.
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And on that note, let's go lightning round, brought to you by the patron saint of the lightning round Jeff from Fuquay-Varina, to close it out this week.
This year, are we--Panthers-going to be able to actually win more than three games? And build a great team around Bryce Young? I've heard nothing positive on him and how we are at the bottom of the totem pole. I've been a fan since their expansion year. When BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM was called ERICSSON STADIUM. HAVE A BLESSED DAY, MR.DARIN. — Tracy, Rawlins, WY
Tracy must have been on that Ericsson flip phone and missed last year's five wins. But Tracy also wished me a blessed day, so that's nice. Thanks Tracy.
You should do a segment called Cat Calls. — Rob, Charlotte
Thanks for helping me commit an HR violation, Rob. (Like I needed the help.)
What's your favorite draft? — Katie, Charlotte
A cold one, next Saturday night.
