CHARLOTTE — At first, as ridiculous as it sounded, there was a hint of possibility when people talked about the Panthers' playoff chances.
(That was because, at the time, when they were 3-8, it was ridiculous to think about.)
But as much as Sunday's loss to the Steelers stung, the news for the Panthers was that it really didn't hurt them in terms of playoff positioning, since the people they are fighting with for that spot lost too.
They're still a game out of first place in the NFC South with three games left, but they oddly still control their own destiny since one of those games is at Tampa Bay on New Year's Day. If they win their remaining three games, they're in. (No, really.)
Of course, they can't honestly talk about that until they win a single game again, and it's not going to be easy with the suddenly hot Lions coming to town on Saturday.
The concept of "suddenly hot Lions" makes as much sense as anything else at the moment when you're thinking about this division, so let's see where things stand now in a division that everyone's making fun of — but one which will send a team to the postseason, regardless.
TAMPA BAY (6-8)
Remaining games: at Arizona, Carolina, at Atlanta.
Record of remaining opponents: 14-26
What it looks like: It looked a lot better for them at 4 p.m., after the Panthers lost. But then they kicked off against the Bengals, and it kept getting weirder and weirder. The Bucs got out to a 17-0 lead before allowing 34 unanswered points. It was the first time Tom Brady had ever lost a home game after leading by 17, and it unraveled in spectacular fashion. Brady threw two interceptions and along with a bad attempt at a fake punt, the Bucs kept giving the Bengals the ball on their side of the field.
Now they're going on the road to play an also-messy Cardinals team before what could be the decisive NFC South clash against the Panthers.
Never tell me the odds (Tell me the odds): According to the New York Times, the Buccaneers' chances to make the playoffs remain at 72 percent. It was 76 percent before they lost to the Bengals Sunday, so the Panthers can thank Joe Burrow and company for that. Still good, but like the Panthers, the way they played makes that number sound higher than it ought to be.
CAROLINA (5-9)
Remaining games: Detroit, at Tampa Bay, at New Orleans.
Record of remaining opponents: 18-24
What it looks like: There's a reason interim coach Steve Wilks didn't want to hear anyone talking about playoffs after Sunday's game. The Panthers couldn't run, they couldn't get off the field, and they allowed the Steelers to do to them what they've been doing to other people.
Now they have to contend with the Lions, who are playing as well as anyone in the league (no, really). Detroit has won six of their last seven (including a win over the Vikings), and quarterback Jared Goff hasn't thrown an interception in his last six games. They're not winning style points, but they're winning.
The Panthers still have a chance, but they had a much better one before they played so poorly Sunday, the first home loss under Wilks (3-1 at Bank of America Stadium). Having beaten the Bucs earlier this year still offers some hope, if they get to that point with it still mattering.
Never tell me the odds (Tell me the odds): According to the New York Times, the Panthers still have a 20 percent chance to make the playoffs. It was 19 percent a week ago after they beat the Seahawks and 10 percent the week before that. So, getting better, I guess (read in the voice of Ron Burgundy when someone accidentally puts a question mark on the teleprompter)?
NEW ORLEANS (5-9)
Remaining games: at Cleveland, at Philadelphia, Carolina.
Record of remaining opponents: 24-17
What it looks like: The Saints have the least-favorable schedule at the moment and like most of the rest of the division no clear and well-defined future at the quarterback position. But who knows what the Eagles are going to do if they clinch the division this week. I've seen weirder things.
And hey, they beat the Falcons Sunday, with enough weird pitch-and-catch stuff to make things interesting.
Never tell me the odds (Tell me the odds): According to the New York Times, the Saints now have a 4 percent chance of winning the division, up from a 1 percent chance a week ago.
ATLANTA (5-9)
Remaining games: at Baltimore, Arizona, Tampa Bay.
Record of remaining opponents: 19-24
What it looks like: With a chance to have made this thing infinitely more interesting, the Falcons fell flat against the Saints in rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder's first start.
He didn't do much to impact the game in either direction, going 13-of-26 for 97 yards (a 59.3 passer rating), as the Falcons relied on their run game as they usually do.
Atlanta split with the Panthers earlier this year, but they actually have the worst division record in this particular group, with that overtime win in Atlanta their only NFC South win of the year.
Never tell me the odds (Tell me the odds): According to the New York Times, the Falcons now have a 4 percent chance of making the postseason, down from 5 percent last week and 14 percent before their loss to the Steelers before the bye.
TIEBREAKER RULES
If there's a tie for the top of the NFC South (and what will be the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs) things could get interesting.
Here's a list of the league's tiebreaking procedures for two teams within a division:
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs)
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference
5. Strength of victory
6. Strength of schedule
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
9. Best net points in common games
10. Best net points in all games
11. Best net touchdowns in all games
12. Coin toss
If there's a tie among three or more clubs, it goes like this:
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs)
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference
5. Strength of victory
6. Strength of schedule
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
9. Best net points in common games
10. Best net points in all games
11. Best net touchdowns in all games
12. Coin toss
(If at some point in the three-team tiebreaker one team is eliminated, the other teams go back to the top of the two-team list.)
What does that all mean? At the moment, the Panthers and Buccaneers have matching 3-1 division records. The Saints are 2-3, and the Falcons are 1-4 in the division.
But ultimately, it comes down to the final three weeks. Which, considering what we've seen so far, is going to be strange and unusual.
AND A NOTE FOR THE PESSIMISTS
While all these teams are mathematically alive, looking at the standings from the bottom up shows another competitive race.
If the season ended today, the Falcons would have the seventh overall pick in the draft, and the Panthers would pick eighth (draft ties are broken based on strength of schedule, and the Falcons' is lower at the moment).
The Saints would have picked ninth based on current standings, but they traded that pick to the Eagles last year.
Since playoff teams pick after all the other non-playoff teams (even if they have worse records), the Bucs are staring at the 19th overall pick based on current standings.
