CHARLOTTE — Bryce Young has heard the talk all offseason, or rather, he's heard the numbers.
Can Dave Canales get Young's throwing time down to 2.7 seconds?
Why 2.7 seconds? Is it feasible to get it to 2.7 seconds in one offseason? How do you shave down the act from snap-to-pass to 2.7 seconds? What happens when it gets to 2.7 seconds and the ball is still in his hands?
No, no, no, Young began to correct. It's not about the actual time. It's not a concrete concept or a rigid deadline.
OK, so what is it?
"It's a philosophy."
For an idea that has such a hard and fast number attached to the approach, the thought of it being more abstract seems to make it almost untethered. Instead, Young explained, it's the opposite, rather grounded in reality.
"So, being realistic, (when we) talk about 2.7," Young began. "It's knowing what we should be able to get through, what we should be able to anticipate, there being movement and things start to break down, and then, knowing when we get into that time period, it's kind of on us."
In other words, it's less about two plus seconds, and more about two plus plays. But we'll get to that in a bit. Because as Young said, the first lesson for him at quarterback in the 2.7 curriculum is "knowing what we should be able to get through."
Jaycee Horn likes to play sticky, allowing those he's covering little to no time to make a clean catch. If a receiver and quarterback are going to counteract his coverage, they have to get the ball out before the DB can even react. Horn wins those battles more often than not. As training camp went on though, he noticed Young chipping into that close time more and more each day.
"I remember the first couple of practices when I noticed it, like (Bryce) was throwing it before they got out of their breaks," Horn shared. "Like (Monday), he threw an out route to Tae ( Diontae Johnson ) and I just broke damn near before Tae and the ball, but just as soon as he got his break, it was just right there. So, I had no time to make a play on it."
Finding success against guys like Horn, something the Panthers are hoping translates to the season against other top corners, illustrates a trait Canales has steadily been folding into the offense and Young's game this offseason; don't force the deep ball.
There is a theory, warranted or not, that an offense can't survive without the deep ball. Yet, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, of the 17,265 dropbacks taken by quarterbacks last season (playing a minimum of 200 passing snaps), a mere 1,558 were attempted for 20-plus yards. That's 9 percent of total passes. It's a stat Canales is well aware of, shaping his belief that success should not be dependent on the explosive, but rather supplemented by it.
Granted, a dink and dunk offense can only take a team so far in this league. Jimmy Garoppolo throwing only eight passes in an NFC Championship win to send the 49ers to the Super Bowl LIV is the exception, not the rule. Still, knowing you might need the big play at times must be balanced with the understanding that you don't have to live and die by it either.
"We want to be as balanced as possible," Young said. "Every play is different. We pride ourselves on being able to take what the defense gives us. We want to establish the run, put up the run, but obviously we're going to look to push the ball down the field when the operation presents itself. I think for us it's trying to create as efficient of an operation as possible."
The efficiency is key.
Quarterbacks around the league last season (min. of 200 passing snaps) collectively went 588-1,558 (37.7%) on passes of 20-plus yards, for a total of 20,371 yards, 156 touchdowns and 82 interceptions according to Next Gen Stats. The yardage and touchdown total stands out, but so too does the small completion percentage and interceptions.
It's the epitome of risk versus reward. So, what is the answer? That is where the second play becomes a factor.
In many categories, the statistics for quarterbacks around the league on a scramble drill (again via Next Gen Stats, parameters being traveling 8-plus mph on foot and throwing less than 19 yards, and an overall min. of 200 passing snaps) are the inverse of those populated from the deep ball. Under those factors, quarterbacks went 815-1,261 (64.6%) for 9,340 yards, 79 touchdowns and 27 interceptions.
The yardage is of course noticeably smaller, as expected with shorter throws, as is the total touchdown number (given that explosive plays can go hand-in-hand with broken plays by the defense). The completion percentage rises significantly however, and the interception number is cut even more dramatically.
The Cowboys' Dak Prescott had arguably the best overall statistics on this play (47-66, 578 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 106.8 QBR, 71.2 completion percentage). The best completion percentage overall though from qualifying quarterbacks, was Baker Mayfield, who knew a guy. Under Canales' tutelage in Tampa Bay last year, Mayfield completed 79.2 percent of passes on scramble drills.
If the rule of thumb states don't take a sack so you can live to play another down, the scramble exists so a quarterback can live to keep playing that down.
"The thought that I have in my mind is always, there are great plays out there. There's more explosives that can happen on the second part of the play," Canales explained. "While I would like to see the ball come out in time in those situations…sometimes things happen and all of a sudden you got to go to the second play."
The second play is carried out in a longer scramble drill, but it is entirely shaped in this offense by the clock in Young's head. While an alarm might not blare at 2.7 seconds, coaches have been clear this offseason about Young developing an innate understanding of exactly how long each play in the scheme lasts, and subsequently knowing when one play is no longer viable.
So, call it an internal clock, call it a complete understanding of the scheme, it doesn't matter. To Young, it's a "little mix of both."
"If you got five reads or, you know, you got four because the back got taken up in protection and you get through four—you're going to know the concepts that, if you get through four and there's not stuff that's going to stay on the move, you're going to have to extend," Young explained.
"And from a defensive standpoint you got to guard four to five sets of routes and then when you move—our receivers do a great job during scramble drills of seeing that, breaking off their route and then coming at a different angle."
When that happens, the clock on the first play stops and the one on the next play begins; which is likely why the average time to throw for quarterbacks on scramble drills last season was 4.14 seconds.
"It is an interesting process because I think I played with eight, nine quarterbacks throughout my career," began receiver Adam Thielen, the grizzled veteran in the group. "Everyone has such a different first play of how they want you to do things and then second play, how they want you to do things.
"So, it does take time. I think it took a long time last year just to figure out what Bryce is going to do, what he's going to be looking for on that second play…I think Bryce is unique—I'm not going to get too detailed—a unique way of how he kind of gets out of the pocket. So, kind of knowing where he's going to go before he goes there."
For the second play to be successful, the receiver has to be adept at both of those factors; knowing how Young moves and knowing where they need to move in response.
"It's all about just field displacement and like where a guy finds himself," offensive coordinator Brad Idzik said. "You see he's either scrambling left or scrambling right. Where do you find yourself? Where's the open space? We need to occupy that vacant space."
The Panthers put concepts together to help receivers move into that vacant space, according to Idzik. But none of them work if the pass catcher isn't intrinsically tied to his quarterback. It's why, when receiver Johnson said he knows where to go on Young's scramble drills because he can "feel him," there is no choice but to trust him.
"You can tell when somebody breaking the pocket; you see how everybody's momentum change and you just react off it," Johnson explained.
The trick, Idzik continued, is taking all that momentum and using it, à la a Black "Panther" suit if you will, to turn the force back on the defense.
"Ball finds energy," Idzik said, repeating a Canales mantra. "So, for guys who are running routes, and a scramble occurs or, you know, the second play occurs, it's all about the first initial movement. Like a corner feels a concept developing, a safety is attaching to a concept and then a violent movement, a different direction, it just explodes all of their rules. It destroys all of their feel for what's going on.
"I don't want to say it's not normal football anymore because it is, it's still the second play, but that first initial movement, no matter where you are on the field, it now disintegrates and puts them in some sort of chaos on defense where they're now just trying to, oh gosh, it's like fight or flight. And we got to initiate that with our first violent movement to the scramble."
It sounds like the best kind of organized disorder for the offense, and absolute hell for the defense.
"Way tougher," Horn shook his head with a resigned laugh. "Way tougher. You just look at guys like Pat Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar (Jackson), some of the guys that's like the best in the league with scrambling plays, the offenses tend to do better just because you got to cover a guy twice as a defensive back.
"It's just basically like a cat and mouse. So as a DB you're not really reading formation or reading tendencies, they're just running, trying to get open, you're just chasing it."
Therefore, the scramble, if repped often and correctly, is when during a game the offense should be at their zenith. No where was that more evident during the preseason than versus the Buffalo Bills on a fourth-down play that Canales called "a thing of beauty."
Facing fourth-and-3 from the Buffalo 46-yard line, Young felt pressure coming from behind and scrambled to his left. He took half a second to turn his hips and quasi-reset, before throwing downfield while turning into a backpedal, hitting Johnson down the sideline for a 17-yard gain and conversion.
It's the kind of play Johnson made countless times with Ben Roethlisberger in 2020 and 2021 while with the Steelers. And it's the kind of play the Panthers were banking on when trading for the receiver back in March. After seeing it in action all offseason, it's also an example of why Canales lauded Johnson as the best receiver at the scramble drill this camp.
And just like he's seen Young's throwing time lessen, Horn has also seen the Johnson end of this connection up close.
"Diontae got a special way of just getting out of breaks fast. He's also very deceptive with his body, where he can be looking like he like BS'ing almost and then just cut, break, take off on you."
Added Idzik of Johnson on the play, "He's so good at setting guys up and he's got such great lateral quickness that he's got no problem with it. It comes so natural for him.
"If you consistently are the guy who's putting your foot in the ground and continuing to work, the quarterback naturally is like, that's my guy. Whoever does it well, and the goal is to have five guys doing it well, so it doesn't matter who, it's just, 'oh, OK, where's my space?'"
Just because this notion of demarcating Bryce Young and the Panthers offense in a 2.7-second timeframe might need more of a philosophical approach doesn't mean the process should be any less granular.
"The reason you rep things so many times is…you need to build in a time clock in your head," Idzik concluded. "'Oh, this is not normal, right?' This is an extension of the play and then that's when we want their antennas and their muscle memory to think, I got to go."
It sounds remarkably similar to something Aristotle once wrote: "For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them."
Proving both the idea and the action, the grand philosophy and the surreptitious ticking of the clock, working in synchronicity.
