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5 things to watch as the Panthers look to finish strong 

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CHARLOTTE — Welcome to the final week of the 2024 season. The 30th season of the Carolina Panthers franchise didn't go quite like many hoped at the beginning of the year, but it did lay a foundation for the next era of the club.

Dave Canales' first year as a head coach saw the Panthers (4-12) double their win total from last season, and the group has one more game to try to add to that column against the Atlanta Falcons. At 8-8, the Falcons are fighting to get the NFC South title and a berth in the playoffs. But the Panthers are fighting for pride and leaving their fan base with hope heading into the offseason (and potentially the third seed in the division which would impact scheduling for next season).

In other words, this is far from a game that doesn't matter, and there are still plenty of intriguing storylines that will factor into the divisional finale.

With that in mind, here are five things to watch in the Panthers final game against the Falcons.

Secondary vs. Penix

The Falcons are headed into their third week with rookie Michael Penix Jr. as the starter. He's an older first year guy, with six years of college behind him, but is still in his first year in the league with so few starts and a world of responsibility on his shoulders.

The Panthers will be short-handed in the secondary though, since Pro Bowl corner Jaycee Horn (hip) is officially out. He and Mike Jackson currently lead the league with the most passes defended as a corner duo. That lead is in jeopardy with Horn not playing this weekend.

"We're just making the best decision for Jaycee as if this were any other game, you know, 'Can you go? Can you not go?' And he was a part of the return to play and got out there and moved around and wasn't to a point where he felt like he could go and be himself on game day," Canales explained.

In his place, the Panthers will turn to Caleb Farley or Akayleb Evans to start opposite Mike Jackson, a decision Dave Canales said on Friday was still being made.

"They're working through all that right now," Canales shared. "You got Caleb and Akayleb—we call him AK so we can differentiate the two guys—that have a chance to get the opportunity over there."

Someone almost guaranteed to be on the field, holding down the backend of the secondary, is safety Xavier Woods. Woods is one of three players in the NFL to play 100 percent of his team's defensive snaps this season. As a result, Woods leads all players in defensive or offensive snaps per game, averaging 67.2 defensive snaps per game.

Xavier Woods 241229_CARvsTB_LW-119

Penix Jr. has completed 11 of his 14 passes for 154 yards against cover 3 since becoming the starter in Week 16 this season, according to Next Gen Stats.

He has averaged 11.0 yards per attempt and has generated a completion percentage over expected of +8.8 percent against cover 3, both of which are well above league average (7.8 yards per attempt, -0.1 percent CPOE).

The Panthers utilize cover 3 at the second-highest rate (45.2 percent of dropbacks faced) and have allowed 7.6 yards per attempt when in cover 3, just below the league average of 7.7.

As they prepared this week, the Panthers didn't have to watch too much of old Penix Jr. tape, because the Falcons haven't been forced to change the offense from what was shaped for Kirk Cousins.

"That's where I've got to give Mike a lot of credit, that the offense really hasn't changed much under him," defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero said this week. "It's a lot of the same course concepts. I think they start off—obviously everything's built from the way they want to run the ball with the outside zone scheme, and they do a heck of a job."

More "Miles"age in the running back unit?

As Dave Canales finished up his Friday press conference, he joked there should be a game designation that's labeled "hopeful." A guy may be questionable but lean more towards hopeful. That's where the Panthers are right now with Miles Sanders. The running back was able to practice all week, even listed as a full participant on Wednesday and Friday. His game status is officially listed as questionable.

Coaches wanted to see how the veteran back was able to move around during practice on Thursday and Friday. By the time Friday's practice had ended, things looked encouraging.

"He looked good," Canales said Friday of Sanders performance during the week. "He handled the workload yesterday and we were smart about it, but he pushed it and he went through some individual (Friday), you know, ran around and cut, and so feels pretty good.

"But again, he's got to go through the day. He's got to see how he wakes up tomorrow, you know, and just with another day of work and we'll take it all the way, it'll be a game day decision for Miles."

Now, they wait to see how he feels Saturday morning. While he will be a game day decision, the Panthers would have to elevate him from injured reserve to the active roster by Saturday afternoon.

Most of the running back duties this year have been handled by Chuba Hubbard, but the offensive line has helped clear a path regardless of who is getting the ball. According to Next Gen Stats, the Panthers have generated a league-high 1.7 yards before contact per carry on under center rushes and have allowed contact behind the line of scrimmage on only 36.4 percent of such runs, the second-lowest rate in the league.

What do the Falcons do without Koo?

The Falcons boast one of the best kickers in the league, Younghoe Koo. But he was placed on injured reserve two weeks ago, meaning Atlanta is finishing the season with Riley Patterson. This is Patterson's third team of the season. He has been tested from 50-plus twice, going 1-2 from distance. His long so far with the Falcons has been 52-yards. For comparison, Koo was 6-9 from 50-plus when injured, with a long of 58-yards.

Without Koo's tested leg, the Falcons could make different decisions even when field position has been flipped.

Patching the run defense

Stopping Bijan Robinson is a tough assignment on the best of days. The Falcons back already has 1,286 yards on the ground with 12 rushing touchdowns. Since entering the league in 2023, Bijan Robinson has forced a league-high 190 missed tackles, 15 more than the next closest player, Derrick Henry, according to Next Gen Stats. Additionally, Robinson has accumulated 1,019 yards after missed tackles in that span, making him one of only two players to generate over 1,000 additional yards (Henry, 1,146).

The Panthers have missed the most tackles in the NFL this season (189), resulting in the fourth-highest missed tackle rate (14.5 percent) among all teams. Additionally, their 1,069 yards allowed after missed tackles is the 3rd-most in the league.

And now, the Panthers have to take on Robinson while trying to avoid working their way further into historical standings this week. They have infamously already set franchise records for the most points allowed and most yards allowed in a season. But with one game to play, they are inching up the list of most allowed by any team defense in NFL history as well.

They'll look to stop the bleeding on Sunday without Josey Jewell, the middle linebacker and signal caller. Jewell is still in concussion protocol as of Friday and is officially ruled out for Sunday.

That means Jacoby Windmon and Chandler Wooten will be holding down the middle of the field again this week, with outside linebackers Kenny Dyson and Thomas Incoom on deck to replace DJ Johnson, who was in a car accident on Thursday and placed on the non-football injury list. Despite the deep depth guys taking over, staring down unenviable history, Evero sees the energy he needs from his run defense.

"Well, it's certainly not (lack of) want to with our group," Evero said Thursday. "These guys have given great effort this entire season, and so there's certainly things we can do, I can do better schematically.

"There's certainly a lot of plays that we can play better, and, yeah, we know what the challenges have been, and that is what it is, and we can't change the past but we have a great opportunity this week to go play our best game and so that's what we're gonna try to do."

Fin

It's apropos that our final five things entry of the season deals with finishing. Dave Canales has preached this all season, pushing his guys to "finish" and "do right longer than the opponent." It was the difference in close losses—like against the Chiefs, Eagles and Tampa Bay the first time—versus close wins such as those against the Saints, the Giants and the Cardinals.

Regardless of the results though, Canales bragged on Friday he hasn't seen any slack off at any point of the season; even when playoffs were out of the question and the final weeks approached. They heeded his message and request to finish through each play to the best of their ability.

Now there's one more week to do so again.

"I am so proud of that (attitude) and not from a personal achievement standpoint, but I'm so proud of this group, that it means enough to them together, and that's really where it came from," Canales said.

"It's about these guys and the way they've connected in that locker room and the way that they're just had that dogged discipline to get back to work, regardless of whatever the outcome of the game was the week before. It was that commitment on Monday to pour into the details in the film, to find that work ethic again on Wednesday and and battle through things.

"That's what I'm most proud of, is a group of guys that spent enough time with each other that it meant something for them to continue to play and I expect that again this week."

View photos from the Panthers' practice as the team prepares to take on the Atlanta Falcons.

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