CHARLOTTE — The Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have long been familiar with one another, a result of playing in the same division and facing each other twice a year since 2002. On Sunday though, there will be extra layers of familiarity, as players on both sidelines look across the way at faces that used to be teammates, and coaches reconnect with former coworkers.
It's the kind of game where records—which currently have the Panthers at 3-8 and the Bucs at 5-6—can be ignored and every snap carries an extra layer of intensity.
With that in mind, here are five things to watch in Sunday's divisional matchup.
Different faces, same firepower
This Bucs offense proved in 2023 that it could not only be productive, but thrive, in the post-Tom Brady world. The 2024 season has brought some changes to the offense, such as losing Chris Godwin for the remainder of the season back in Week 7 and forced to play without Mike Evans for a stretch with a hamstring injury.
Evans returned last week and looks like he's back to his old self, pulling in five receptions for 68 yards. The guy throwing him the ball, Baker Mayfield, has the third-best completion rate in the NFL right now, at 71.4 percent. He has also thrown the third-most touchdowns—24 as of Week 13—to only nine interceptions.
The Panthers are familiar with that duo though. But this Week 13 matchup will introduce Carolina to a new talent, rookie Bucky Irving.
The running back has 108 carries for 580 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. In the Bucs' Week 12 win against the Giants, Irving rushed for 74 yards on six carries outside the tackles, forcing four missed tackles on those carries. According to Next Gen Stats, he now has generated a 49.1percent success rate on rushes outside the tackles, the second-highest this season among running backs with at least 50 attempts on such carries. He has forced 34 missed tackles for a 64.2 percent rate that is the highest by any running back (min. 50 outside rushes) since at least 2018.
"I know as a runner, he can run, when you get the ball and cutting, cutting the ball back across the field two or three times. So I know he a good player and be ready for him on Sunday," Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn said this week.
The Panthers corners though can't just view Irving from the perspective of a run stopper. The rookie back has also caught 32 passes (on 34 targets) for 252 yards. This past Sunday in particular, he caught six passes for 64 yards.
"He can do it all," corner Mike Jackson said. "They use him the pass game. So we just got to be aware of where he's at on the field, how they line up and how they want to get him the ball."
Bucs shuffling secondary while front stays strong
The Bucs lost safety Jordan Whitehead on Sunday to a pectoral injury. While the full extent of the injury is still unknown, the veteran won't be available this week against the Panthers and possibly even when the two teams face off in Week 17. Whitehead was placed on Injured Reserve Friday and will have to miss at least four games. Tampa Bay has a deep unit of defensive backs to move around and replace Whitehead’s snaps, starting with Mike Edwards—who was picked up off waivers from the Bills two weeks ago and played 42 percent of the snaps against the Giants last week—but the lack of Whitehead is something the Panthers have noted.
"He's obviously a great player," receiver Adam Thielen said this week of Whitehead. "Veteran guy that's played a lot of ball and you can tell that they communicate well in the secondary because of him and (Antoine) Winfield and all that.
"So obviously a big loss for them, but I think they got some other guys that have some experience and can fill in. But yeah, he's a great football player and bummed not to see him out there."
Dave Canales knows the absence of Whitehead could change his game plan. But the presence of Todd Bowles and his scheme is still the most prevalent.
"I think you kind of look at what are the most difficult parts of their scheme that they may not ask these guys to do that require a lot of a safety coming in," Canales explained Friday. "So you kind of look at some of those things and say, ok, what might be some safer calls? But then also just knowing Coach Bowles, he is going to call his plan. So we got to be ready for all the stuff that we've seen."
While the secondary does a bit of shuffling, the front-seven still boasts Vita Vea, who will receive a lot of focus from Carolina. The nose tackle leads the Bucs in sacks with six.
"Tremendous player," quarterback Bryce Young said this week of the man he'll have to keep an eye on. "He's been doing that for a really long time. I have a ton of respect for him, we all do. Great player."
The Panthers offensive line has protected Young well this season. He has only taken 13 sacks in his eight game appearances.
Said Young of the Vea versus O-line matchup, "From my standpoint, I have all the trust in the world in my offensive line. I believe in them. I'm sure they respect the player as well for me. I believe in my guys and I'm going to trust in them."
Hey Mr. D.J.
Can the Panthers pass-rush strike another week? The group, which posted nine sacks in the first nine games, have accumulated seven sacks in the past two weeks. There are a lot of reasons the pressure has built, from chemistry to understanding of scheme to more.
"I would say that it's a whole group that's been trending towards good football and communication," Canales said earlier this week.
But the addition of D.J. Wonnum can't be understated.
"Specifically, to D.J., he jumps into a group that was trending in the right direction in terms of growth and communication and then he brings a bunch of experience played in the scheme before," Canales bragged. "And then the way he prepares, just his professionalism…for the young guys, it's really cool to just have another guy to show them how to prepare and how to be so meticulous about your rush plan, about playing the run, and the discipline that it requires to play football in this scheme.
"And just a good story, right, just like overcoming adversity and then having his opportunity and really playing with a bunch of gratitude. So, he's been huge."
Wonnum has had 59 pass rush snaps in his two games since being activated. He's had eight quarterback pressures and two sacks on those plays, plus seven stops (a positive play for the defense).
The defense could get another outside linebacker on the field soon too. Amaré Barno—a core special teamer who played gunner when on the field last year —was designated to return to practice on November 18 and took to the field this week. The Panthers will have to make a decision today as to whether or not he is activated for Sunday.
"He looked great," Canales said. "Doing all the special team stuff, he was out there practicing with the group, so it's a big decision for us to make, as far as getting him up. That means you have to make room on the roster. But he's taking the next step, so we'll make a decision here in the next couple of days."
Cracking open the window
One of the surest examples of Bryce Young's growing confidence has been his tendency to fit the ball in tighter windows the last few weeks.
According to Next Gen Stats, Young completed a career-high four passes into tight windows, one for a touchdown, against the Chiefs in Week 12.
Since he was reinstated as the starter in Week 8, he has generated a +10.2% completion percentage over expected and a 75.7 passer rating when targeting receivers with less than 3 yards of separation, after he had a -7.1% CPOE and a passer rating of 33.4 on these throws prior to Week 8.
Xavier Legette was a target on those tight window throws against the Chiefs. Late in the fourth quarter, with the Panthers driving and looking to tie Kansas City, Young lofted a perfect rainbow throw down the left sideline for Legette. It passed right through the hands of the rookie receiver, landing incomplete on what could have been a highlight play.
The Panthers did score and tie the game on that drive, but Legette expressed frustration with himself the next day, pointing out that if he'd caught the ball, the offense could have possibly scored sooner, allowing time on the clock to get the ball back later.
He also texted Young and apologized for the drop.
"I told him it don't get no better than that. I got to make that play," Legette shared this week. "I haven't moved on from it because I feel like if I would have made that play, that would have put us in the right field position, and we would have had still had more time on the clock after we scored.
"He sent me a text back like, man, I believe in you 100 percent at the X position to win the one-on-one and we're going to get it done…for us to keep going in the direction that we're going in, to be able to win for real, I just got to play better."
The Buccaneers have allowed a -0.9% CPOE and a 75.6 passer rating to receivers with less than 3 yards of separation this season.
Can the Chuba train chug on?
Chuba Hubbard faced one of the best run defenses in the league last week, and as such, saw his third fewest yards per carry this season, at 3.1 per rush. He finished with 58 yards total, most of which (54 yards) came in the second half, after the Panthers forced the Chiefs defense to play honest with the pass.
Hubbard, who is still fifth in the leave overall in total rushing, will look to get back on track this week, but will have to do so against a Tampa Bay defense that is holding teams to 120.7 yards per game on the ground.
View photos from the Panthers' practice as the team prepares to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.